Planning for Export after the Pandemic , livre ebook

PLANNING FOR EXPORT AFTER THE PANDEMIC
Jonathan Reuvid
University of Buckingham Press, 51 Gower Street, London, WC1E 6HJ
info@unibuckinghampress.com | www.unibuckinghampress.com
Contents Jonathan Reuvid
The right of the above author to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in
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Planning for Export after the Pandemic

1 Surveying the Scene 5
2 Priority Markets - Research and Strategy 7
3 WTO Rules and UK Trade Post-Brexit 18

APPENDIX 27

I Germany 28
II The United States of America 33
III Netherlands 38
IV France 43
V China 48
VI Japan 53
VII South Korea 58
VIII Hong Kong 63

5

1
SURVEYING THE SCENE

As of April 2020, there is no certainty when the current coronavirus
pandemic will end, nor of how deep the global recession into which we
are plunged will be. For exporters and those planning to export there
are three key questions:
1. When markets revive and export conditions approach normal,
what distortions to the balance of trade will there be.
2. Will the changes be permanent or will trade revert to its 2019
pattern.
3. For UK exporters and importers what will happen to the process
of post-Brexit negotiations.
That there will be short-term effects on the relative and absolute
values of import demand and export capability for the product
groups of individual economies is certain. Established suppliers and
customers will be affected, some permanently where supply chains and
manufacturing locations are adjusted or downgraded.
Whether or not there will be long-term changes in the balance of
international trade between Europe, America, China and other Asian
economies and regions is doubtful. The major shift in the tectonic
plates of the global economy generated from the 1980s by the rise
of China as an economic powerhouse and accelerated through the
following decades by the emergence of other Asian tigers is unlikely to
be reversed. Indeed, the resilience of these newer markets may well be
stronger than that of their European and North American competitors.
As to the trade discussions with the EU, timing constraints suggest
that it will prove impossible to strike a meaningful agreement by the
end of June when the UK government is required to declare whether
Introduction
6

or not it wishes to continue the negotiations. They are not a hot topic
in the media for the time-being and it would seem logical that, like the
Tokyo Olympics, the cut-off date of January 2021 could be extended.
However, it is possible that the timetable will remain intact and that
the UK will be trading with the EU on WTO terms from the New Year
onwards. For those who are uncertain what that would mean Chapter
3 summarises WTO rules and how they are operated. 1

1 Readers wishing to prepare themselves as exporters and the role of
innovation in penetrating new markets are referred to Global Innovation
to published by University of Buckingham Press in April 2020 (Print
ISBN 9781787198609).
7

2
PRIORITY MARKETS - RESEARCH AND STRATEGY

FOCUS FOR UK EXPORTERS
In the absence of a hard Brexit the ultimate tariff terms that will
apply to trade between the UK and the EU, as with other countries or
customs unions further afield, should not be the determining factor
in selecting the priority markets on which any UK exporter focuses
its efforts.
Regardless of prior or no previous experience as an exporter, it is
timely for any company to step back and research forensically the
opportunities in 2020 and onwards to grow profitable business. Having
shortlisted the more attractive markets for export development, each
exporter can then apply the practical criteria identified by BExA
in Chap. 2.2 of Global Innovation to grade and select the most
promising.
Desk research
The first step, as always in matters of international trade, is
structured desk research. There is an abundance of data available
on the internet, but much of it is of peripheral interest only and may
be disregarded as not pertinent to the main thrust of a disciplined
strategic approach.
Priority Markets - Research and Strategy
8

The sequential process described below is based on applying the
Pareto principle to discover the low-hanging fruit by identifying first:
(a) top target economies with the strongest current levels of
imports;
(b) the UK share of each specific market s imports; and
(c) the top UK product groups with the most successful export
profiles; and then drilling down to:
(d) the markets within each target territory where each UK product
group is imported; and
(e) the shares of the UK s major competitors in those markets.
Steps (a), (b) and (c) of this sequential process are detailed in
this chapter. Steps (d) and (e) are detailed in the Appendices
for individual markets.

Caveat
For individual companies the process can be shortened or supplemented
where there is a specific lead or a promising niche market outside the
target territory list to which a UK competitor has already exported
successfully. Such leads may be mined from Chambers of Commerce
or Industry Associations, from consultation with the UK Department of
Trade and its website or discussion with recommended export agents or
distributors. You can also visit the data from which the 5 step process
is sourced to research further into markets outside the top 10 and your
own more specific product group, if it is not among those addressed in
this book.

A. TARGET ECONOMIES WITH STRONGEST LEVELS OF MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
The first part of the opening step is to identify the leading economies
in world trade and the top 20 are listed in Table 2.1. Exports as well
as imports in 2018 are included to give a more complete picture of
each country s international trade activity. For example, both the UK,
USA and India import significantly more than they export, while the
Russian Federation appears as a top 20 exporter in its role as a supplier
of gas.
All WTO statistics are cited in US$, the common currency for
comparisons in international trade rather than more recent but parochial
UK Department of Trade statistics in sterling.