Climate Change , livre ebook

Climate     Change
Briefings From Southern Africa
Climate     Change
Briefings From Southern Africa
Bob Scholes, Mary Scholes and Mike Lucas

Wits University Press
Published in South Africa by:
Wits University Press
1 Jan Smuts Avenue
Johannesburg 2001
www.witspress.co.za
First published in South Africa in 2015
ISBN 978-1-86814-918-6 (print)
Text © Bob Scholes, Mary Scholes, Mike Lucas 2015
Images © Individual copyright holders 2015
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the written permission of the publisher, except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act, Act 98 of 1978.
All images remain the property of the copyright holders. The publishers gratefully acknowledge the publishers, institutions and individuals referenced in the captions. Every effort has been made to locate the original copyright holders of the images reproduced. Please contact Wits University Press at the address above in case of any omissions or errors.
Diagrams: Colin Bleach
Project management: Hazel Cuthbertson
Permissions: Ute Schwaibold
Copy Editing: Lee Smith
Proofreading: Judith Marsden
Index: Marlene Burger
Printed by Interpak
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the support of the Department of Science and Technology, and would like to thank the reviewers who read the manuscript, the team at Wits University Press who agreed to publish the book in time for COP 21, as well as all the colleagues, friends and other professionals who contributed photographs, comments and expertise as we brought this project to fruition.
Contents
Foreword by Minister Naledi Pandor
Acronyms and abbreviations
Preface
How do governments assess climate change?
Sidebar: Climate change sceptics and scientific reasoning

SECTION 1
Earth system science: The processes that underlie climate change
INTRODUCTION
1. Why is Earth habitable?
Sidebar: Heat radiation
2. How do greenhouse gases regulate Earth’s temperature?
3. Is water vapour the most important greenhouse gas?
4. Why are clouds the wild card in climate change?
5. Is climate change just part of a long-term natural cycle?
Sidebar: Milanković cycles
6. Are climate variations just due to volcanoes or other Earth processes?
7. How do El Niño and La Niña events affect South African weather?
8. How hot might it get in South Africa this century?
9. How might the rainfall in Southern Africa change in the twenty-first century?
10. Are extreme weather events related to climate change?
11. How do land-use changes and deforestation affect global warming?
12. What is South Africa’s contribution to global warming?
13. What happens to carbon dioxide emissions?
14. Can ecosystems keep sucking up carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning?
15. Could ocean currents slow down or change direction?
16. Is there any chance of runaway global warming?

SECTION 2
Consequences of a changing climate for the Southern African environment
INTRODUCTION
1. How resilient are ecosystems to climate change?
2. How will South Africa’s plants respond to climate change?
3. Could rising carbon dioxide concentrations boost plant growth?
4. Is bush encroachment caused by global change?
5. Will South Africa’s land animals cope with climate change?
6. Are South Africa’s birds taking flight?
7. Will South Africa run out of water?
8. How will climate change affect freshwater ecosystems?
9. How much, and how fast, will sea level rise?
10. What is ocean acidification?
Sidebar: The chemistry of ocean acidification and calcification
11. How will ocean acidification affect marine organisms?
12. How is climate change affecting South Africa’s coastal seas?
13. How is our marine life responding to climate change?
Sidebar: Is the African penguin a victim of climate change?
14. Will coral reefs survive climate change?
15. Are South Africa’s Prince Edward Islands vulnerable to climate change?
16. How are Antarctica and the Southern Ocean responding to climate change?
Sidebar: Why is South Africa so involved in Antarctica?

SECTION 3
Consequences of a changing climate for society
INTRODUCTION
1. Is the South African economy vulnerable to climate change?
2. How will climate change affect agriculture?
3. Will there be enough food to eat?
4. Do cow farts really cause global warming?
5. How will forestry in South Africa respond to climate change?
6. How will climate change affect South Africa’s marine fisheries and aquaculture?
7. What are the human costs of climate change?
8. How do climate and air pollution interact to affect human health?
9. Will climate change cause malaria to spread in South Africa?
10. Should South Africans worry about rising sea levels?

SECTION 4
What we can do to avoid and adapt to climate change
INTRODUCTION
1. Is it cheaper to tolerate climate change or prevent it?
Sidebar: The road to a global climate deal
2. Is carbon trading desirable or useful?
3. Is it possible to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere?
4. Could fertilizing the oceans fix climate change?
5. Could we reduce incoming solar radiation?
6. Are there viable alternatives to coal for South Africa?
Sidebar: Emerging technologies – ocean power
7. Can nuclear power provide the clean energy we need?
8. Can we turn garbage into energy?
9. Do biofuels offer a solution?
10. Could spekboom save our bacon?
11. Can we help plants and animals adapt to climate change?
12. Can we build climate-friendly houses and cities?
13. How can I reduce my carbon footprint?
Sidebar: Some simple energy-saving tips
Sidebar: Did you know?

CODICIL
Is there a dangerous level of climate change?
Glossary
List of figures
References
Reading list
Index
Foreword
T he recent natural disasters experienced globally, which may have been the result of climate change, serve to emphasize the need for all states and citizens to stand in solidarity in addressing and mitigating the unpredictable effects of climate change and global warming. The effects will be felt not only by individuals but also by industry, and this will have a particularly severe impact on the global south. This is a stark reminder of the need for a more balanced and equitable global society that is free from hunger and poverty.
A rational response to this threat will require partnerships between nations as well as increased support for research and innovation. These will be needed to save future generations’ livelihoods and prosperity, and also to preserve the welfare and well-being of the global population.
This book summarizes the important knowledge gathered around global change and its impact in the Southern African region. It points out that the Southern African region has over the past century warmed at a rate of about twice the global average. What is more perturbing is that it will continue to do so if proactive actions are not taken to address global warming. The fact that large parts of Southern Africa are already hot and dry makes the countries in this region all the more vulnerable to further warming and greater rainfall uncertainties.
The South African Department of Science and Technology has for many years supported research into climate change, its impact and strategies for adaptation and prevention. The Department will continue to provide strategic direction and support in understanding climate change and in related research and innovation. South African researchers, including the authors of this book, continue to make significant contributions to the global knowledge base on this crucial twenty-first century issue.
It is clear that global warming and climate change affect everyone. I believe that, as citizens, we must play a role in developing solutions which meet our aspirations for a better life and ensuring that we do not condemn future generations to an intolerable environment.
It is therefore with great satisfaction that I introduce this sometimes complex science of Earth’s climate to the people for whom it is most relevant – the ordinary, interested parties outside of the scientific community. ■

MRS GNM PANDOR, MP
MINISTER OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
SOUTH AFRICA
Acronyms and abbreviations
ACC
Antarctic Circumpolar Current
ACI
Atmospheric Circulation Index
APF
Antarctic Polar Front
BCLME
Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem
BECS
biomass energy with carbon storage
Ca 2+
calcium ions
CaCO 3
calcium carbonate
CAM
Crassulacean Acid Metabolism
CCG
combined cycle gasification
CCS
carbon capture and storage
CFCs
chlorofluorocarbons
CH 4
methane
CO 2
carbon dioxide
CO 2 eq
CO 2 equivalent
CO 3 2-
carbonate
CoP
Conference of the Parties (of UNFCCC)
DDT
dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane
EEZ
exclusive economic zone
ENSO
El Niño–Southern Oscillation
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GLOBEC
Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics
GtCO 2
gigatonnes carbon dioxide
GWh
gigawatt-hour
GWP
Global Warming Potential
H +
hydrogen ion
HCO 3 -
bicarbonate ion
H 2 CO 3
carbonic acid
H 2 O
water
IAC
Inter-Academy Council
IGBP
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IR
infrared
IUCN
International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
kW
kilowatt
kWh
kilowatt-hour
LED
light-emitting diode
m -2
per square metre
MPA
marine protected area
MSL
mean sea level
MW
megawatt
NADW
North Atlantic Deep Water
N 2 O
nitrous oxide
O 3
ozone
pCO 2
pressure of CO 2
Pg
petagram (one Pg = 1015 grams = one billion metric tonnes)
pH
-[log H + ]
PM
particulate matter
ppb
parts per billion
ppm
parts per million
PRO
pressure-retarded osmosis
PV
photovoltaic
RCP
Represent